Four significant developments will characterise the global threat landscape in 2017. First, it is likely thatthe so-called Islamic State (IS) will transform from a caliphate-building entity into a global terroristmovement. In a manner similar to Al Qaeda (AQ) that had dispersed from its Afghanistan-Pakistan core in 2001-2002 to conflict zones worldwide, IS will refocus on consolidating the distant wilayats (provinces) to serve as bastions of its power. Second, the death of either IS‘ leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi or AQ‘s leader Ayman al Zawahiri may lead to collaboration or possible unification of the most powerful terrorist groups.
This is possible because the discord between IS and AQ is not ideological in nature but over the issue of leadership. Third, IS, AQ and their associates will compensate for their losses in the physical space by expanding further into cyber space. Despite government and technology firms collaborating to monitor the cyber space, the battle-space of threat groups in the virtual communities will continue to operate and grow. Fourth, the rise of far-right, ethno-nationalist, anti-Islamist populist movements, particularly in the US and Europe is a pertinent development. The response by governments and their societies to these movements within their countries and ethno-nationalist challenges in the Middle East and elsewhere will determine the threat levels in the future.